Thru the Cycle

Thru the Cycle

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Markets See Nothing but Blue Skies Ahead
But possibly severe sanctions against Russia give pause
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John Lonski
Outlook for Friday, July 25 through Friday, August 1
July 30's FOMC meeting and August 1's jobs report could rock markets
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John Lonski
Utility Rates and Health Insurance Show Rapid Inflation Is Alive and Kicking
Government data says consensus underestimates Q2 2025 growth of consumer-related revenues
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John Lonski
Ample Liquidity Outside of Real Estate Says No to Rate Cuts
After closing lower by -0.4% in immediate response to the widespread signs of tariff related price increases found in the July 15 release of June’s CPI…
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John Lonski
Mild Wage Growth Will Limit Inflationary Impact of Higher Tariffs
Tariff revenues may approach a tiny 1% of GDP …
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John Lonski
Headlines Mask a Lower-than-expected rise by June’s Private-Sector Jobs
You should never accept a corporate earnings report at face value.
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John Lonski

June 2025

If Consensus Is Right on Economy, 10-year Treasury Yield Drops Under 4%
Second half outlook calls for slower growth, fewer new jobs, and faster price inflation …
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John Lonski
Military and Trade Wars Menace Outlooks for Economy and Markets
The US economy now slows.
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John Lonski
Waiting for Trade Deals Is Like Waiting for Godot
Trump’s goals of creating a more level playing field in international trade and enhancing the US’ national security through the realization of…
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John Lonski
May’s CPI Reminds Us “It Takes Two to Tango”
Drop in aggregate demand can offset supply shock of higher tariffs …
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John Lonski
What’s Wrong with May’s Jobs Report?
Amid all the jubilation over the equity market’s 1.0% daily jump in response to May’s slightly bigger than expected increase by payrolls, Treasury bond…
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John Lonski
Breaking Up Is Hard to Do
Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder …
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John Lonski
© 2025 John Lonski
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