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Outlook for Friday, July 25 through Friday, August 1
July 30's FOMC meeting and August 1's jobs report could rock markets
10 hrs ago
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John Lonski
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Outlook for Friday, July 25 through Friday, August 1
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Utility Rates and Health Insurance Show Rapid Inflation Is Alive and Kicking
Government data says consensus underestimates Q2 2025 growth of consumer-related revenues
Jul 21
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John Lonski
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Utility Rates and Health Insurance Show Rapid Inflation Is Alive and Kicking
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Ample Liquidity Outside of Real Estate Says No to Rate Cuts
After closing lower by -0.4% in immediate response to the widespread signs of tariff related price increases found in the July 15 release of June’s CPI…
Jul 17
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John Lonski
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Ample Liquidity Outside of Real Estate Says No to Rate Cuts
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Mild Wage Growth Will Limit Inflationary Impact of Higher Tariffs
Tariff revenues may approach a tiny 1% of GDP …
Jul 10
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John Lonski
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Mild Wage Growth Will Limit Inflationary Impact of Higher Tariffs
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Headlines Mask a Lower-than-expected rise by June’s Private-Sector Jobs
You should never accept a corporate earnings report at face value.
Jul 5
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John Lonski
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Headlines Mask a Lower-than-expected rise by June’s Private-Sector Jobs
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June 2025
If Consensus Is Right on Economy, 10-year Treasury Yield Drops Under 4%
Second half outlook calls for slower growth, fewer new jobs, and faster price inflation …
Jun 26
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John Lonski
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If Consensus Is Right on Economy, 10-year Treasury Yield Drops Under 4%
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Military and Trade Wars Menace Outlooks for Economy and Markets
The US economy now slows.
Jun 18
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John Lonski
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Military and Trade Wars Menace Outlooks for Economy and Markets
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Waiting for Trade Deals Is Like Waiting for Godot
Trump’s goals of creating a more level playing field in international trade and enhancing the US’ national security through the realization of…
Jun 12
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John Lonski
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Waiting for Trade Deals Is Like Waiting for Godot
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May’s CPI Reminds Us “It Takes Two to Tango”
Drop in aggregate demand can offset supply shock of higher tariffs …
Jun 11
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John Lonski
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May’s CPI Reminds Us “It Takes Two to Tango”
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What’s Wrong with May’s Jobs Report?
Amid all the jubilation over the equity market’s 1.0% daily jump in response to May’s slightly bigger than expected increase by payrolls, Treasury bond…
Jun 9
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John Lonski
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What’s Wrong with May’s Jobs Report?
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Breaking Up Is Hard to Do
Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder …
Jun 5
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John Lonski
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Breaking Up Is Hard to Do
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Federal Outlays Speed Past Private-Sector Spending
ADP is an untrustworthy indicator of the US government’s private-sector jobs metric …
Jun 4
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John Lonski
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Federal Outlays Speed Past Private-Sector Spending
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